By Laixiang Sun

ISBN-10: 0333948092

ISBN-13: 9780333948095

In China, mixture funding degrees were excessive and the cycles of funding progress fee were extraordinary. as a way to demonstrate the mechanisms which force funding starvation and cycles, this e-book develops an built-in growth-cycle framework which integrates the normal idea of socialist economies, the distributive barrier-constrained progress conception of constructing economies, and the new technical progresses within the western company cycle conception. It additionally analyzes the evolutionary dynamics of China's kingdom funding method and the coverage trade-off among business enlargement and agricultural improvement.

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Extra resources for Aggregate Behaviour of Investment in China, 1953-96: An Analysis of Investment Hunger and Fluctuation (Institute of Social Studies)

Sample text

Five-year moving average). This model can be written as: where M(t) represents the volume of the investment vintage and symbolizes the value of machines and buildings put into operation in future as a result of the projects started in year t, H(t-\) represents consumption lagged by one year, K(t) represents the investment commitment, that is, the total scale of investment required for completing all projects under construction in the year /, and Z(t) indicates the shortage intensity. The (*) designation presents normal levels of M(t), H(t-\), K(t) and Z(t), respectively.

The choice of a concrete modelling strategy is taken based on the following two observations. 2, in the literature on modelling planners' reaction function to shortage, scholars formerly employed univariate moving averages to represent the normal growth path (norm) which served as an attractor similar to the equilibrium path in Walras' economics (Kornai 1982). The econometric problems linked with this approach are: (a) univariate moving averages may produce spurious cycles and (b) the normal path should be a structural relationship when one deals with investment control function and should be determined by the interaction between relevant demand and supply forces rather than by such univariate techniques as moving averages.

In addition, as in other socialist countries, data on new investment projects are not available in China. Thirdly, perhaps more importantly, there exists a type of 'fallacy of composition' within the theoretical derivation related to investment commitment. The concept of investment commitment has played a central role in quantifying effective demand for investment goods. 'The investment decision-maker is - to a large extent - the prisoner of his own previous decisions' (Kornai 1982: 54). The basic assumption here is that current decisions concerning the volume of investment in the next period are determined by past decisions on investment starts.

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Aggregate Behaviour of Investment in China, 1953-96: An Analysis of Investment Hunger and Fluctuation (Institute of Social Studies) by Laixiang Sun

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