By AARON M. ALTSCHUL and HAROLD L. WILCKE (Eds.)
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Extra resources for Animal Protein Supplies
5% higher. 2. Wheat Similarly, a typical projection for wheat would indicate a wheat yield of 37 bushels per acre, but this also appears to be low not only on the basis of linear trend from 1960 to 1973, but of a longer trend from 1950 to 1973. In this case, too, a projection to a 10% higher level is conceivable. 3. Soybeans On the other hand, a similar projection for soybeans points to 35 bushels per acre by 1985, but this could be judged to be too high. A lower projection, by as much as 10-12%, would be more in line with the normal experience of 19601973.
There are the changing determinants of yields such as weather, technology, fertilizer, and irrigation. In the distribution of food from surplus-producing to deficit countries, export-determining factors such as prices and government trade and aid policies must be taken into account. We should also add that the changing characteristics of the statistical records and the way they are perceived and used by the projector have a bearing on the choice of projections. B. C R O P L A N D ( U N I T E D S T A T E S ) The records of area of production, yields, and distribution for any one region or country lend themselves as illustrations.
The range is wide and widens as the low and high projections are extended to 1985-1986. For that year the low projection is 40 million tons and the high is 60. D. THE GREEN REVOLUTION The extent to which the food and people gap may be expected to be closed by further developments of the "green revolution" is also in the realm of uncertainty both as to time and magnitude. We have already noted that the "green revolution" in the United States, which was not foreseen before the 1930's, quadrupled average corn yields and more than doubled average wheat yields in 30 years.
Animal Protein Supplies by AARON M. ALTSCHUL and HAROLD L. WILCKE (Eds.)