By Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University (auth.)
This ebook is a quarterly forecast and research record at the chinese language economic system. it really is released two times a 12 months and offers ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a learn venture on the heart for Macroeconomic examine (CMR) at Xiamen college. in line with the CQMM version, the examine crew forecast significant macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP progress, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. whilst it specializes in simulation of present macroeconomic guidelines in China. as well as aiding readers comprehend China’s fiscal pattern and coverage consultant, this ebook has 3 major targets: to assist readers comprehend China’s fiscal functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
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Additional info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook : Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2016
The two effects would work together and expand net exports, with a positive impact on the slowdown in economic growth. On the other hand, the devaluation of the currency will inevitably cause an outflow of capital, with negative impacts on economic liquidity and money tensions. Considering that the foreign reserve plays an important role in current economic liquidity, the outflows will increase the tension on funds and be a drag on future investments. In addition, enterprises still holding more USD liabilities will suffer losses, which may influence their future investments.
In the short term, the growth rate of residential real income is unlikely to increase significantly. Residential consumption habits and propensity are even more unlikely to change greatly. Therefore, residential consumption will continue to maintain its current slow growth over the next 2 years. 33 percentage points over the previous year. 4. Although the IMF predicts that global trade in goods and services will recover its growth over the next 2 years, the economic growth of major economies is still highly uncertain.
59 %. However, if we deduct the base effect, the overall net growth effect is not very positive. , depreciate 13 % until the end of 2016), it may help increase net exports, which will have a positive impact on the overall economy. However, the large-scale capital outflows caused by this rapid depreciation would put pressure on already declining investments, which would have a greater negative impact on the overall economy. Thus, the consequences of indulging a depreciation policy may do more harm than good.
China’s Macroeconomic Outlook : Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2016 by Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University (auth.)